If today had to choose the most discussed area weather problems, very likely would win the debate about global climate change, global warming and its possible consequences ...

Air (podnebí) je dlouhodobý charakteristický režim počasí podmíněný energetickou bilancí, atmospheric circulation, the nature of the active surface and human activity. It can be characterized by the mean values ​​of meteorological elements, accompanied by extremes and the frequency of their occurrence, or further statistical characteristics. An important aspect of the climate of the place is also the average annual variation of meteorological elements and their average annual variability. Integrovaný popis pomocí více proměnných (zejména teploty vzduchu a srážek) vede k tzv. klasifikacím climate. Climatic types can be defined, eg. Having regard to the distribution of vegetation areas.

For shaping climate it is important to not only conduct atmosphere, but it is of crucial importance and ocean and the interaction of these two systems. Plays an important role i Cryosphere a biosféra. All these components are part of climate system. Can not be neglected influences on the climate system from outside. Podnebí v určité oblasti se vyznačuje určitou stálostí – dlouhodobé charakteristiky souboru klimatických prvků vypočítané za různě zvolená delší časová období (řádově desítky let) se od sebe příliš neliší. This does not preclude significant climate change, occurred during the geological history of the Earth, But neither climate fluctuations over hundreds or thousands of years. Klimatický system is constantly changing and evolving.


Giant. 1: Procesy spojené s energetickou rovnováhou systému Země (převzato z Solomon et al., 2007, IPCC AR4, WG1, Chap. 1, FAQ Fig. 1.1)

Skleníkový jev (efekt), today often discussed in the media in connection with the observed global climate change, There is nothing unnatural. Without his presence, the average surface temperature of the Earth was about -18 ° C instead of the current +15 °C. The result of the radiation balance of power of the solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface, power back thermal radiation of the atmosphere and the Earth's thermal radiation, při zahrnutí i některých dalších procesů s příspěvkem k celkové energetické bilanci (viz Obr. 1), above the average temperature of the Earth's surface. The greenhouse effect is therefore for current conditions and for life on earth. Most greenhouse gas water vapor. Its amount is in the atmosphere, or. in the planetary system of the Earth, essentially unchanged. Nejdůležitější plyn z hlediska současného zesilování skleníkového efektu je oxid uhličitý (CO2). That is, after a long period to accumulate in the form of fossil fuels. Their simultaneous combustion and CO2 back to the atmosphere results in amplification of the greenhouse effect, which leads to an increase in surface temperature. It has, of course, through a series of feedback implications for the whole climate system.

Terrestrial climate system is one of the most complex systems studied contemporary physics. Basic features of its behavior can be described by physico-chemical models investigated methods of numerical mathematics. Nowadays, the most common type of climate models are so-called. globální klimatické modely (GCM), Thus atmospheric general circulation model associated with the model ocean, cryosphere, or. a model of the biosphere or chemical model. The base model is formed by a dynamic core, representing the basic physical description of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere. A number of other events, which can not be given resolution explicitly describe, is captured by physical parameterization. Climate model must take into account other components of the climate system and the links between them. In particular, the thermal exchange, transfer of momentum and moisture between the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Tak se původně modely všeobecné cirkulace atmosféry stávají modely systému Země (Earth System Models), as they are now beginning to also say, and are an essential tool currently climatology.

Sample model outputs RegCM of simulation-driven global model CNRM-CM5 made in the framework of international activities Euro-CORDEX. Shown is the simulated change in mean seasonal air temperatures in Europe for the period 2021-2050 compared with the reference period 1961-1990. DJF refers winter season, MAM year, JJA Leto sounds podzim. The color scale corresponds to a change of temperature in ° C.

Sample output from the simulation model RegCM driven global model CNRM-CM5 carried out in the framework of international activities Euro-Cordex. Shown is the simulated change in mean seasonal air temperatures in Europe for the period 2021-2050 compared with the reference period 1961-1990. DJF refers winter season, MAM year, JJA Leto sounds podzim. The color scale corresponds to a change of temperature in ° C.

Global climate simulations are very complex with high demands on computing capacity. The horizontal resolution is currently ranges from 1 ° to 3.5 ° latitude / longitude. Given the relatively coarse horizontal resolution is the distribution of continents and oceans somewhat different from reality, as well as the elevation surface. Clearly, it is not possible to capture the effects of less horizontally vast mountains, different type of surface, etc.. Due to its coarse resolution GCM fail to faithfully simulate the climate at smaller scales. Therefore, the techniques used to zoom out, so. downscalingu. One option is to use dynamic downscaling, thus regional climate model. This is a model of the atmosphere, similar to that of the atmospheric GCM, However, the calculation in this case does not take place for the whole Earth, but only to a limited area, eg. for the territory of Central Europe. This allows greater resolution model, which currently ranges from 50 do 10 km. The boundary conditions are taken from the control of the global model are used or observed values. Global and regional climate simulations, despite refining the spatial resolution burdened with many uncertainties. One option, how these uncertainties study, is to use the file multiple simulations of different models, which use various simplifying assumptions. While the GCM are due to their high computational demands of the domain of large research centers, regional models can be operated even in modest conditions.

The KMOP MFF UK research in the field of climatology long tradition. Currently, our department run by the regional climate model RegCM, vyvíjený v International Centre for Theoretical Physics v Terstu. Currently serves RegCM simulations for Europe to plans for coordinated activities CORDEX. In addition, we deal with mj. Validation method outputs of global and regional climate models, problems of creating climate change scenarios, assessment of the associated uncertainties and localization, and post-processing of model outputs. Například se věnujeme validaci výstupů klimatických modelů pomocí výše zmíněných klimatických klasifikací a analýze možných budoucích změn klimatických typů pro různé emisní scénáře (více viz here). Climatological research KMOP MFF UK takes place in the framework of national and international research projects, a list of some of them, see Research and publications .